Nuclear warfare has been a constant threat to humankind since the second half of the 20^th Century.  So, before we examine Donald Trump’s position on nuclear war, let’s first understand parameters and implications of such a war.  According to an article from the BBC, dated January 18, 2024:

1. The Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) that carry nuclear warheads travel at speeds over 17,000 mph (i.e., 23 times the speed of sound) and descend upon their targets at 4 miles per second.
2. The flight time for a land-based missile fired from the U.S. to Russia is between 25 to 30 minutes. Submarine-based missiles that are closer to the Russian border could reach their targets in as little as 12 minutes.
3. In the United States, the sole authority to launch a nuclear strike is our President.

Given that the United States, Russia, and several other nations have nuclear arsenals that are capable of destroying the planet many times over, and that there would be very limited time to either strike or respond to a strike by an advisory, every rational leader knows that the nuclear option cannot be won and must never be chosen.

Trump’s Interest in Nuclear Weaponry

Now let’s look at Donald Trump, who according to a BBC article dated August 10, 2017, has “displayed a keen interest in the utility of atomic weapons for decades.”  As an example, when Chris Matthews of MSNBC asked him during an April 2016 town hall if he would categorically rule out using nuclear weapons, Trump responded, “Would there be a time when it could be used?  Possibly. Possibly.”

Most concerning, however, were the comments Trump made in a 1990 interview with Playboy Magazine.  During that interview, he stated, “I’ve always thought about the issue of nuclear war; it’s a very important element in my thought process . . . I believe the greatest of all stupidities is people believing it will never happen.”

Admittedly, these comments from the Playboy interview are in the distant past, before Trump was ever a candidate for President.  So, let’s look at more recent data.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Below is an abridged version of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, dated July 2, 2024. This nonprofit organization was founded in 1945, after World War 2.  It focuses on science and security issues that could have negative consequences for humanity.  The Bulletin states the following:

A re-elected Trump would put nuclear weapons programs on steroids, trash what remains of the global arms control regime, and likely trigger new nuclear weapons programs in more other nations than we have seen at any time since the early 1960s.

Trump’s nuclear policy was made clear in December 2016, when then President-elect Trump emphasized that the U.S. had to “greatly strengthen and expand” its nuclear weaponry and “outmatch” any adversaries.  More recently, it was more explicitly spelled out in a new conservative manifesto by Project 2025, a coalition of over 100 far-right groups led by the Heritage Foundation.  This document is widely seen as the template for a possible Trump 2.0 administration.  (For more information, see “Summary of Project 2025’s ‘Mandate for Leadership,’” contained within this blog website.)

Project 2025 Nuclear Proposals

A key goal of Project 2025 is to reshape the Defense Department as follows:

• • Prioritize nuclear weapons programs over other security programs.
  • Accelerate the development and production of all nuclear weapons programs.
  • Increase funding for the development and production of modernized nuclear warheads.
  • Increase the number of nuclear weapons above current treaty limits, including buying more ICBMs than currently planned.
  • Expand the capabilities of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) weapons production complex, including vastly increasing budgets, shedding non-nuclear weapons programs at the national laboratories (such as those devoted to the climate crisis) and accelerating production of the plutonium pits that are the core of nuclear weapons.
  • Prepare to test new nuclear weapons, ignoring the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty that the U.S. signed and has adhered to since 1992.
  • Reject current arms control treaties that are “contrary to the goal of bolstering nuclear deterrence.”

Recommendations for Implementation

In March 2024, the Heritage Foundation detailed the steps necessary to implement these proposals.  Among these are:

• • Make a major speech soon after inauguration to “make the case to the American people that nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantor of their freedom and prosperity.”
  • Increase the number of deployed nuclear warheads by directing the placement of multiple warheads on each of the currently deployed Minuteman III ICBMs by 2026.
  • Direct the NNSA to “transition to a wartime footing,” including the expansion and construction of facilities to produce plutonium and plutonium cores for nuclear weapons.

Implications of This Plan

If these recommendations are implemented, they would result in a sharp decline in the security of Americans and a dramatic increase in the risk of regional and global conflicts. At the very least, the proposed programs will explode our national debt.

The existing U.S. strategic arsenal already exceeds what is required for any conceivable nuclear mission. We currently maintain a stockpile of some 3,708 nuclear warheads.  Of these, about 1,770 warheads are fully deployed and ready for launch within minutes of a Presidential order.

To put the power of this arsenal in perspective, 100 such weapons would destroy not only the targeted nation but likely unleash a nuclear winter that could destroy virtually all human civilizations from earth.

Increasing the U.S. arsenal at the scale recommended by Project 2025 would likely compel rival nations to increase their nuclear weapons development and deployment to match ours.  In addition, allied nations like Japan, South Korea, and Germany could be pushed over the nuclear line and start developing nuclear weapons of their own.

Provocation for War

If Donald Trump acts on these recommendations (and it is highly likely that he will, given that at least 140 members from the previous Trump administration were instrumental in writing and editing the Project 2025 document), the prospects for sustainable peace in the future will be severely dimmed.  And let us not forget Trump’s fascination with nuclear power.  During his 2016 term as President, when tensions were high between the U.S. and North Korea, Trump warned North Korea that it could face “fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen” (quoted from BBC article dated August 10, 2017).  This threat has been widely interpreted as a reference to the destructive force of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

We also might want to consider what it would actually take to push Trump over the edge and go nuclear.  Well, in a 2022 interview with Piers Morgan on Independent TV, Trump said that Putin “uses the ‘N’ word, the ‘Nuclear’ word, all the time.  That’s a ‘no-no,’ you’re not supposed to do that; he uses it on a daily basis.  And everybody is so afraid, so afraid, so afraid.”  When Piers asked what he would say to Putin, Trump said he would tell him, “You cannot use the ‘nuclear’ word ever again – and if you do, we’re going to have problems.”

Conclusions

So, we are left with the following:

1. Trump has a long-standing interest in the usefulness of atomic weapons.
2. Based on past statements, Trump seems to believe that nuclear warfare is inevitable. So, for him, the nuclear option is a viable one.
3. The destabilizing strategies and recommendations in Project 2025’s manifesto, which was written in part by members of Trump’s previous administration, may well reflect actions that Trump will take if elected for President in 2024.
4. Trump has often been seen as unpredictable and easily provoked, which is not the best prescription for world stability. Perhaps Hillary Clinton expressed it best when she observed, “a man who can be provoked by a tweet should not have his fingers anywhere near the nuclear codes” (cited in a BBC article dated December 2016).